Is global hiring slowing down in 2026? What the data says

On October 6, 2026, HubSpot announced it would cut about 660 jobs, roughly 7% of its workforce. Within hours, the layoffs became another data point in the "AI is replacing workers" story, and another sign that hiring is over.

The data says something more useful. Employers' hiring plans for the end of 2026 are stronger than a year ago. Actual hiring in advanced economies is still well below 2022, and the main reason is the economy, not AI. Meanwhile, the way companies hire across borders keeps shifting toward employer of record (EOR) models.

Key takeaways

• ManpowerGroup's global Net Employment Outlook for Q4 2026 is 29%, up 2 points on the quarter and 6 points on the year, from a survey of 39,878 employers in 42 countries.
• Employers expecting to cut staff point to a soft economy, not AI or automation, according to the same survey.
• LinkedIn reported in April 2026 that hiring is down about 20% since 2022 and links the drop to higher interest rates, not AI.
• HubSpot's CEO wrote that its cuts are "not driven by AI-related efficiencies", while the company grew Q2 2026 revenue 20% year over year.
• India (54%) and Brazil (53%) report the strongest hiring outlooks of all 42 countries.
• In Atlas HXM's 2026 survey, 54% of organizations use or plan to use an EOR, ahead of owned foreign entities at 45%.

Is global hiring slowing down in 2026?

It depends on which number you read, and the two main ones point in different directions.

Hiring plans are rising. ManpowerGroup asks employers every quarter whether they expect to add or cut staff. For October to December 2026, 43% plan to add staff and 14% plan to cut, a Net Employment Outlook of 29%. That is 2 points higher than the previous quarter and 6 points higher than a year earlier. The Americas lead at 36%, followed by Asia Pacific at 34% and Europe and the Middle East at 22%.

Actual hiring is still low. LinkedIn's data, presented in April 2026, shows hiring down about 20% since 2022, and between 20% and 35% below pre-pandemic levels in advanced economies. So hiring has slowed compared with the 2021 and 2022 peak, and plans have only started to recover.

Company size matters too. In ManpowerGroup's survey, organizations with 250 to 999 employees report the strongest outlook (34%), and small businesses with 10 to 49 employees show the biggest improvement on last year. Close to two thirds of employers that are hiring say they do so because the roles and skills they need are changing, so "fewer roles, chosen more carefully" describes 2026 better than "no hiring".

For companies that hire internationally, that matters. When each hire gets more scrutiny, the total cost of employment in each country becomes a bigger part of the decision.

Is AI causing the hiring slowdown?

The data so far says no, at least not yet.

ManpowerGroup's Q4 2026 survey found that expected staff decreases are driven more by a soft economic environment than by AI or automation. LinkedIn reached the same conclusion from its own data: the drop in hiring tracks interest rates and economic conditions. It also did not find a sharper decline in the jobs most exposed to AI, such as customer support, administration and marketing.

AI does show up at the edges. Employers in ManpowerGroup's survey list it among the reasons they hire fewer early-career people, behind a general drop in hiring and the cost pressure to hire experienced people who are productive from day one.

What the HubSpot layoffs actually show

HubSpot is a useful example because its CEO addressed the AI question directly. In her letter to employees, Yamini Rangan wrote that the cuts are "not driven by AI-related efficiencies" and "not simply a cost-cutting exercise". HubSpot is reorganizing its product teams around customer outcomes instead of individual product lines, and the letter says the change will reduce management layers and give teams clearer ownership.

The company is not shrinking either. HubSpot reported $911.7 million in Q2 2026 revenue, up 20% year over year.

The letter also contains a detail anyone employing people abroad will recognize. In the US, affected employees were told by email within 15 minutes. In other countries, the process and timing depend on local requirements, including consultation rules. HubSpot expects $65 million to $75 million in charges, mostly for severance, notice periods and transition support.

That is what ending employment across borders costs, even for a company with legal and HR teams in every market. Notice periods, consultation and severance differ by country, and our Termination Cost Index compares them. Smaller companies hiring abroad usually rely on an EOR to handle this.

Where global hiring is strongest

The recovery is uneven. India (54%) and Brazil (53%) report the strongest hiring outlooks of all 42 countries in ManpowerGroup's Q4 2026 survey, followed by Panama (49%), and Mexico and the UAE (both 41%). LinkedIn's data points the same way: hiring in India and the UAE is up strongly while advanced economies lag.

For companies building teams abroad, these markets combine deep talent pools with lower total employment costs than most of Western Europe and North America.

EOR vs entities: how companies hire abroad in 2026

The method companies use to hire internationally keeps changing. In Atlas HXM's Global Atlas Report 2026, a survey of 425 senior HR, legal, finance and operations leaders in North America and Europe, 54% of organizations say they use or plan to use an EOR. That is ahead of fully owned foreign entities (45%) and independent contractors (34%). Atlas HXM is itself an EOR provider, so read the exact numbers with that in mind; the direction matches what we see across the market.

It makes sense in a cautious market. Setting up a legal entity takes months and carries fixed costs. An EOR lets a company test a market or hire a single person without that commitment, and exit more easily if plans change.

Contractor misclassification risk is rising

Many companies still hire abroad through contractor agreements. That option is getting riskier. Tax and labor authorities in several countries are reclassifying cross-border contractors whose arrangements look like employment, which can lead to back taxes, social security contributions and penalties.

For long-term, full-time team members abroad, converting contractors to EOR employment is often the lower-risk option. Our contractor to employee calculator shows what the switch costs.

What this means for companies hiring internationally

• Prioritize roles, not headcount. Employers are hiring for changing skills. Look for markets where talent depth and total employment cost both fit.
• Compare total employment cost, not salary. Employer social security, mandatory benefits and EOR fees vary widely by country. Our Global Employer Burden Index shows what the same salary costs an employer in each country.
• Review contractor arrangements. If long-term contractors work like employees, address it before a tax authority does.
• Check termination rules before you hire. Notice periods and severance obligations differ by country. Ask your EOR provider how offboarding works in each market before onboarding anyone there.

Frequently asked questions

Is global hiring slowing down in 2026?

Actual hiring is still below 2022 levels, about 20% lower according to LinkedIn. Hiring plans are recovering: ManpowerGroup's global outlook for Q4 2026 is 29%, up 6 points on a year earlier.

Is AI causing layoffs and the hiring slowdown?

Not according to current data. ManpowerGroup and LinkedIn both point to economic conditions and interest rates as the main cause. HubSpot's CEO also wrote that its October 2026 layoffs were not driven by AI efficiencies.

Which countries have the strongest hiring outlook?

India (54%) and Brazil (53%) report the strongest outlooks in ManpowerGroup's Q4 2026 survey, followed by Panama (49%). By region, the Americas lead at 36%.

Is the EOR market still growing?

Adoption is. In Atlas HXM's 2026 survey, 54% of organizations use or plan to use an EOR, ahead of owned foreign entities at 45%.